Spatial analysis of suicide mortality in Spain in 2022. Preliminary results on the influence of socio-economic factors

By Alejandro de la Torre Luque, Miriam Marco Francisco, Iván Pérez Díez and Rogelio Weiss

The geographical disparity of suicide mortality across communities and even provinces in Spain has been discussed for many years. Current epidemiological tools may help draw more accurate conclusions about the socioeconomic, climatic and political factors that may lead to the disparities observed at the geographical level.

In this study, it aims to explore the relationship between socio-demographic factors (population density, percentage of migrant population, population ageing rate, rate of single-person households by province), economic factors (gross domestic product by province, unemployment rate by province, health expenditure by autonomous community) and environmental factors (maximum temperature) on suicide mortality rates by province in Spain in the year 2022. For this purpose, spatial Bayesian models considering the Poissonian distribution of the number of suicide deaths were used. Consolidated data for 2022 derived from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) were used. The socio-demographic and economic variables under analysis were also extracted from the INE and public ministry sources. We considered the pooled suicide data and data for male and female suicides, separately.

As a result, it was observed that the risk of suicide is higher in provinces with higher ageing rates and a higher proportion of migrant population. On the other hand, provinces with lower population density, lower gross domestic product (GDP) and located in autonomous communities with lower health investment had a higher risk of suicide. Temperature was also related to suicide risk, such that the lower the maximum temperature, the higher the risk of suicide in the provinces. In relation to the sex-specific models, a higher risk of suicide was observed among women in provinces with a higher proportion of migrant population and a higher rate of ageing, lower maximum temperature, lower GDP and lower health expenditure in their autonomous community. Finally, provinces with lower population density and GDP, higher proportion of migrant population and higher ageing rate showed a higher risk of suicide in men.

The attached figures show the provinces with a higher risk of suicide (in red) compared to the average risk, and those with a lower risk (in blue) than the average, both for total deaths (overall risk), for female (female risk) and for male deaths (male risk). It is observed that, controlling for the abovementioned factors, several provinces show a higher risk of mortality by suicide both overall and for men and women (e.g., provinces of Galicia and Asturias), while other provinces show variations in risk according to the sex of the deceased (e.g., provinces of eastern Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha or Castilla y León).

In conclusion, the spatial analysis used shows the influence of human factors (demographic and socioeconomic) on the variability of suicide mortality in Spain. This type of analysis can be a highly valuable tool to assist in the development of public prevention policies.